The Orlando Condo Market: Part I – The Blackjack Analogy

aceAccording to data gathered by the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, the median resale price of a home in Central Florida is about $250,000. At a quarter of a million dollars, most first time home buyers are effectively priced out of the housing market. But believe it or not, it is still possible to find an Orlando condo for under $100,000. And that could prove to be a vital first foot on the property ladder. In other words, condos are still affordable – just. But they probably won’t be in a couple of year’s time. Remember that between 2004 and 2005, the median resale price of a home in the Orlando area rose more than 60% according to ORRA and although prices are now dropping again, it is still likely that within the next decade, Orlando will be just another expensive city that regular folk can’t afford to live in – unless you’ve played your hand well today. Which means not allowing fear to make you keep your strongest cards until last.

Good card players play their cards at pivotal moments in the game. Aces are not your favorite pieces of candy in the packet, to keep until last so you can savor them at your leisure. When I did that as a kid, my friends would usually steal them right in front of me and then claim that because I wasn’t eating them, they figured I didn’t want them.

In short, it’s a mistake not to buy today because you’re unconvinced that the market is at its lowest. Because no one knows for sure when that is until it’s already passed – and rates are on the rise again. In truth, you don’t have to know when the market is at its lowest, just plain low is the right time – and we’re clearly there. Like Black Jack one must play the odds. You don’t have to make it exactly to 21 in order to win, you just have to be smart enough to know that 19 is probably close enough to win the game. Those who try and hit 21 nearly always “bust.”

Condo prices have dropped dramatically in the last year and are currently very low. They may go just a little lower before they begin to rise again. Then again, they may not.

Question: Are you going to “twist” and risk busting your whole hand by waiting another 6 months for an uncertain saving, or are you going to “stick” and buy one of the incredible deals that are out there right now?

Next week: The Orlando Condo Market: Part II  The Interstate 4 Analogy.

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